IVThe Oracle · Pool-Winner ProbabilitiesRoyal Birkdale

Forecast

Each team's chance to win the pool at Shinnecock Hills, built from live betting-market odds for all 40 golfers.

The The Open Championshipdraft hasn't happened yet. The forecast will populate once rosters are committed and Kalshi markets are live.

How this is calculated

We run 10,000 simulated tournaments. For each, every drafted golfer is assigned a finishing position sampled from their Kalshi probabilities (Win, T5, T10, T20, Make Cut):

Win bucket → position 1
T5 not Win → uniform position 2–5
T10 not T5 → uniform position 6–10
T20 not T10 → uniform position 11–20
Made cut not T20 → uniform position 21–73
Missed cut → position 73 (tied for last of the made-cut field — matches the pool's MC rule)

Each team's best-3-of-4 total is computed per simulation (the 4th golfer is the “drop”). The team with the lowest total wins that simulated pool — Win Pool % is the share of sims each team won; Top-2 Finish %is the share where each team finished 1st or 2nd (the pool only pays the top two). Ties split evenly. The per-golfer “Counted” column shows how often each golfer landed in the best-3 across simulations.

The Hold the Championview is separate: it sums each team's four golfer Win probabilities (mutually exclusive events, so no sim noise) to answer “what's the chance one of my guys wins the tournament outright?” A team can hold the champion and still lose the pool if their other three golfers play poorly.

For the occasional drafted golfer Kalshi doesn't price, we fall back to ESPN's published betting-odds article — marked with an espn tag in the per-golfer breakdown. Kalshi is the live exchange and wins any conflict (it agrees with DraftKings to within rounding); ESPN is treated only as a coverage fallback, not as primary signal.